Why knowing more did not help McKay Coppins beat the odds

By:
Joy Pope

McKay Coppins began his year of sports betting with $10,000 and a journalist’s curiosity. By the end, only $109 remained. 

In his article for The Atlantic, “Sucker: My Year as a Degenerate Gambler”, Coppins recounts how he began betting online to examine the ways gambling was reshaping American life. The more he learned about teams and betting strategies, the more confident he became in his picks. That knowledge drew him further into gambling, but it did not help him beat the market. 

Coppins will discuss the experience at UGA on Oct. 7 during “The Casinofication of America: How Online Gambling Hooked a Generation—and What It’s Doing to Sports, Politics, and Culture.” His account also highlights issues arising in research by Adam Goodie, who has spent more than two decades studying gambling and decision-making. 

Goodie, a faculty member and associate dean in UGA’s Franklin College of Arts and Sciences, studies how a sense of control affects people’s willingness to take risks. He has found that people take greater risks when they believe their abilities will shape the outcome. Sports betting can reinforce that confidence because learning more about a team can lead to better predictions. But knowing the game is not the same as knowing more than the sportsbook and other bettors. 

“It’s great to have knowledge or skill, especially when you’ve recently improved,” Goodie said. “But are you actually more knowledgeable or skilled than your opponent? Because that’s what it takes to win the bet.” 

That distinction helps explain why Coppins became more confident as he learned. He became a better-informed sports fan, but he was still betting against sportsbooks and other bettors who had access to much of the same information—and often far more data. 

The lesson may be especially relevant at UGA, where students can arrive with years of knowledge about the Bulldogs and their SEC rivals. That familiarity can make betting feel like a test of expertise rather than a game shaped partly by chance. 

Goodie said bettors should watch for superstitions that cannot affect the outcome. He also cautioned against parlays, which require several predictions to be correct. Someone might bet that Georgia will win, score more than 30 points, and help push the game’s combined score above 50. If any prediction is wrong, the entire wager loses. 

“You might be quite confident in each prediction,” Goodie said, “but the likelihood that just one of them is incorrect is generally higher than people think.” 

Online sportsbooks can keep that confidence in motion. Mobile and live betting allow users to wager almost as soon as they spot an opportunity. That speed adds to the excitement, Goodie said, but it can also encourage riskier decisions. As the wagers pile up, bettors may focus on what comes next rather than how much they have risked over the course of a game. 

Coppins experienced that pull firsthand. His reporting project gradually became a routine of researching teams, anticipating games, and looking for another chance to put his knowledge to use. Losses did not necessarily stop the cycle; the next game offered a fresh opportunity. 

Former college quarterback Brendan Sorsby described a more severe progression, according to a recent Inside Higher Ed column. Court records cited in the column show that he moved from small wagers on his own team to thousands of bets, including wagers on overseas teams he did not follow. 

Sorsby has since been diagnosed with a gambling disorder. Although he was a college athlete, his story shows how an interest in a familiar team can lead to gambling that has little connection to fandom. It also points to risks across the student population that may never come to the attention of athletics officials. 

Sports betting remains illegal in Georgia, but students can still access offshore sportsbooks and informal bookmakers. Prediction markets and fantasy-style products can further blur the legal boundaries. A 2023 NCAA survey found that young adults reported betting on sports at similar rates whether they lived in states where it was legal or prohibited. 

Goodie recommends two questions for identifying a possible problem: Have you ever felt the need to bet more and more money? Have you ever had to lie to people important to you about how much you gambled?  Together, the questions form the Lie/Bet Questionnaire, a two-question screening tool for problem gambling. 

Gambling becomes a concern when it begins to interfere with school, finances, or relationships, Goodie said. Coppins’ losses show that knowing more does not necessarily make betting safer. In his case, greater knowledge brought greater confidence—and another reason to keep betting. His visit to UGA offers students an opportunity to consider how easily that confidence can obscure the role of chance. 

Special lecture: McKay Coppins, a New York Times best-selling author and staff writer at The Atlantic, will present “The Casinofication of America: How Online Gambling Hooked a Generation—and What It’s Doing to Sports, Politics, and Culture” at 2 p.m. Wednesday, Oct. 7, in Room 271 of UGA’s Richard B. Russell Special Collections Libraries. Coppins covers politics, religion, and national affairs and is the author of “Romney: A Reckoning” and “The Wilderness.” 

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